Projections by Conference
Predictions by Date

How March Madness Teams are Projected

by the StatJunkie Statistical Model

StatJunkie’s statistical model uses a logistic regression equation to place a probability of being selected as an at-large bid on every NCAA basketball team.  The higher the probability for a team, the more likely they will be selected for the March Madness tournament.  The model looks at a handful of variables that have found, over time, to be the most significant in the decision making.

Of course, no model can predict exactly how things will look at the end of the season, but looks at the projections "today".  If the selection were to happen today, the model determines which teams currently have the best resume to make the tournament.  Because of this, constant shifts will occur throughout the year as we see teams go through hot/cold spells and win/lose big games.  Think of the statistical percentage that we assign each team as a barometer as to what a team needs to do to make the March Madness tourney moving forward in the season.  We can project how teams will fare as the season progresses, so stop back often to track your team’s chances of making the big dance!



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